Hurricane Season Forecast Suggests Higher Chances of Cruise Disruption
Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science has released its preliminary forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
While hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1, these early predictions offer some insights into what to expect as winds speed up through the busy summer cruising months.
In broadest strokes, the forecast report calls for above-normal activity, albeit somewhat lower than the 2024 seasonal predictions. This year, a total of 17 named storms with nine hurricanes and four major storms (Category 3 or higher) are anticipated.
In April 2024, 23 named storms with 11 hurricanes and five major storms were predicted. The season concluded on November 30, 2024, with a total of 18 storms, 11 hurricanes, and 3 of them classified as majors.
Before the report discusses the finer details of the 2025 predictions, it does have one statement that must be made absolutely clear.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” the report notes.
Nearly 40 years of past data from various storm tracking and modeling resources are used to create the seasonal predictions.
This year, a weak La Nina will likely keep the early part of hurricane season fairly neutral, but warmer than typical ocean surfaces in the eastern and central Atlantic mean storms can form and strengthen quickly.
It is important to note, however, that predictions are only that – predictions – and models occasional fail to predict already dynamic and uncertain conditions.
“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April,” the report explains. “We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the public and the bring attention to the hurricane problem.”
Typically, early season storms tend to be weaker, with the strongest storms forming in late summer and early fall when the ocean waters are warmest.
The peak of hurricane season activity in Florida – and the Sunshine State’s six cruise ship homeports – is in early September. Dangerous storms, however, can and do occur at any time during the season, or even outside its official June 1 through November 30 dates.
What an Active Hurricane Season Means for Cruising
Regardless of the seasonal predictions, hurricanes can have a dramatic impact on cruise travel. From closing homeports to changing itineraries to delaying or cancelling sailings, even one storm can affect oceangoing vacations.
But where will this year’s storms most likely hit? Further analysis of historical data and current conditions does offer some insights.
The probability of a major Category 3+ hurricane striking anywhere along the continental US coastline is believed to be 51%, while the east coast and Florida peninsula probability is 26%. The probability of a major strike along the Gulf Coast to Galveston and Brownsville is 33%.
All three of these probabilities are above historical averages from 1880-2020, which are 43%, 21%, and 27%, respectively.
In the Caribbean, there is a 56% probability for at least one major hurricane track, compared to a historical average of 47%.
Read Also: How a Hurricane Could Affect Your Cruise
Of course, a hurricane does not need to be a major storm to have a significant and even catastrophic impact on an island nation, private cruise destination, or port of call.
Damage to docks, excessive debris accumulation in a harbor, or disruptions to local power supplies and services can all make it impossible for a cruise ship to visit a destination even after a smaller storm may have passed.
All cruise lines closely monitor weather conditions as well as storm development and potential tracks, adjusting their operations as necessary. The safety of guests, crew members, and port communities is always the top priority.
Cruise travelers with sailings booked during hurricane season should always be flexible with their travel plans and expectations, and be prepared for possible changes and less-than-smooth seas.
Hurricane Season Forecast Suggests Higher Chances of Cruise Disruption